FeatherPenClipArtWith the Hugo Award announcement only 10 days away, the ever-interesting Chaos Horizon has posted predictions. Based on statistical analysis of past trends, here would be the expected results for Best Novel:

Uprooted 27.1%
Ancillary Mercy 20.5%
Seveneves 20.0%
The Fifth Season 17.1%
The Aeronaut’s Windlass 15.3%

However, the Sad/Rabid Puppy movement in the last few years has turned the Hugo voting into, well, chaos. Factors that complicate the results include the Sad and Rabid Puppy voting blocs, the knee-jerk No Award responses, and the fevered efforts of Hugo Award supporters to make sense of all the mess. As a result, Chaos Horizon is predicting the following:

1. Uprooted by Naomi Novik
2. The Fifth Season by N.K. Jemisin
3. Ancillary Mercy by Ann Leckie
4. Seveneves by Neal Stephenson
5. The Aeronaut’s Windlass by Jim Butcher

This is based 1) on the popularity of Novik’s novel and 2) on what’s likely to be left standing after the scuffle at the ballot box. I have to say I think Brandon is right about the ultimate winner, but I’d place the runners-up in a different order.

Anybody else have an opinion?

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